- v1.0
- Re-runs every night, 00:00 UTC
- Maintained by Diederick Jacobs
How the Stacks model works
Questions
Where does the data come from?
- stacks.co: The Bitcoin Staking rollout: PoX-5's dates and the bond terms
- SIP-045: The reserve rule, §3.3
- PoX-5 contract: The bonds on chain, read through Hiro
- CoinGecko: The BTC and STX prices
How often does it re-run?
Prices and the bonds on chain refresh every 15 minutes. The full model re-runs every night at 00:00 UTC. Bond terms change when a new bonding period is published.
What does it leave out?
It is a simplified model calibrated to the report's published scenarios; the analysts' full model stays private. Miners follow a rule, not a forecast: they re-price with a lag and leave faster than STX falls. Bond capacity and demand beyond the bonds on chain are settings you choose, since later bonding periods have not published their size.
What if I disagree?
Tell us which input or rule you would change. Contact the team
What changed
- v1.0 · 6 Oct 2026First version: the PoX-5 Bitcoin bonds, paid from the Bitcoin miners bid for STX, run eight years forward.
Cite this
Diederick Jacobs (2026). "Stacks Bitcoin Staking model v1.0". Chimera Labs, House of Chimera. https://www.houseofchimera.com/labs/models/stacks-btc-yield
@online{chimera_stacks-btc-yield_2026,
author = {Diederick Jacobs},
title = {Stacks Bitcoin Staking model v1.0},
organization = {Chimera Labs, House of Chimera},
year = {2026},
url = {https://www.houseofchimera.com/labs/models/stacks-btc-yield}
}