- v1.3
- Re-runs every night, 00:00 UTC
- Maintained by Diederick Jacobs
How the STRC model works
Questions
Where does the data come from?
- Strategy dashboard: Bitcoin held, mNAV, STRC and the other preferred stock
- SEC 8-K filings: The USD reserve and the coins sold and bought, filed weekly
- CoinGecko: The Bitcoin price
How often does it re-run?
Prices and Strategy's figures refresh every 15 minutes. The full model re-runs every night at 00:00 UTC. Filed figures, such as the USD reserve, change when a new 8-K lands.
What does it leave out?
It is a simplified monthly model, recalibrated to Strategy's filings from June to August 2026; the analysts' full model stays private. It sells coins only when it has to, at the reserve floor with share sales shut, so sales Strategy chooses to make above the floor are not in it. Market impact is one number you set, how far each 10,000 coins sold moves the price, not a model of the order book.
What if I disagree?
Tell us which input or rule you would change. Contact the team
What changed
- v1.3 · 15 Oct 2026Recalibrated to Strategy's 29 Jun 2026 capital framework: a reserve floor of 12 months, refills from share sales while mNAV is above 1, coins sold only at the floor, and the STRC rate rising 0.6 points for every 10% Bitcoin falls.
- v1.2 · 4 Jun 2026The model published with the report: a $3.0B reserve spent down to zero before any coin is sold, and the STRC rate rising 2 points for every 10% Bitcoin falls.
Cite this
Diederick Jacobs (2026). "STRC death-loop model v1.3". Chimera Labs, House of Chimera. https://www.houseofchimera.com/labs/models/strc-death-loop
@online{chimera_strc-death-loop_2026,
author = {Diederick Jacobs},
title = {STRC death-loop model v1.3},
organization = {Chimera Labs, House of Chimera},
year = {2026},
url = {https://www.houseofchimera.com/labs/models/strc-death-loop}
}