ModelsStacks Bitcoin Staking
Stacks Bitcoin Staking model
Miners pay Bitcoin for STX blocks, and that Bitcoin pays the PoX-5 bonds first. Pick an STX path and see when the bonds stop being covered.
More about this model
Stacks miners commit Bitcoin to compete for STX block rewards, and most of that Bitcoin is paid out to participants who lock STX.
The PoX-5 upgrade, live since 29 July 2026 with the first bond on 10 September 2026, lets Bitcoin holders join by pairing their BTC with a small STX bond. Those bonds are paid first from the miner-funded pool, the leftover is split between STX stackers and a reserve, and capacity is set once per six-month period against a coverage target.
Because miners pay with the value of the STX they expect to receive, a falling STX price shrinks the pool while the bonds already sold still have to be paid. That is the loop this model runs.
Verdict
All 210 cycles paid by miners.
Reality check
12.4 BTC
BTC a cycle10.6 BTC
2 bonds since 10 Sep 2026: 735 BTC at 3%; bond payments due 0.8 BTC a cycle.
- actual
- Base from today
- model said
- bond payments due
3,000 BTC of bonds modelled, at a modelled yield. Stacks sold 735 BTC at 3%.
Scenarios
Calls the report made
- Right
PoX-5 activates with the reserve in accrual-only mode, so a shortfall in the bootstrap period cannot be covered without a hard fork.
29 Jul 2026 - Not due yet
Every cycle is funded from miner revenue on the bear, base and bull paths, with a reserve of 30 to 160 BTC after eight years.
Every bonding period - Not due yet
A one-off STX fall of about 60% is survived on every path; around 75% breaks the bear path.
If STX falls
All 210 cycles paid by miners.
- Cycles paid
- 210 of 210
- over 8 years
- Reserve after 8 years
- 272.2 BTC
- ▲ report 72.2 BTC
- Yield paidThe rate the bonds cleared at, averaged over 8 years. Demand above capacity lowers it.
- 1.32%
- ▼ report 2.57%
3,000 BTC modelled, your capacity is the limitBonds sold is the smallest of three limits: your capacity, 3,000 BTC; the coverage room, 4,384 BTC (the miner pool ÷ 2.0× cover, at 3%); and expected demand, 15,580 BTC, our assumption, not Stacks': 2,500 BTC × (BTC ÷ $63,193)^2.5 × (STX ÷ $0.169)^1.3 at today's prices, 2,500 × 1.89 × 3.30 = 15,580 BTC. The only measured figure is Stacks' own: 2 bonds since 10 Sep 2026 hold 735 BTC.
Adjust the scenario
Starts from Bitcoin $81,511, STX $0.423, on 14 Oct 2026.
Reserve backing the bonds
Do miners cover the bond payments?
Reality vs yours
| Measure | Reality so far | Your scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Cycles paid | 7 of 7 | 210 of 210 |
| Reserve after 8 years | — | 272.2 BTC |
| Yield paid | 3% | 1.32% |
Verdict rule
- FundedAll 210 cycles paid by miners
- Leaning on reserveSome cycles paid by the reserve
- BreaksAt least one cycle unpaid
The loop
Base: no step fires
- STX falls
- Miners bid less
- Reward pool shrinks
- Bond payments stay
- Reserve drains
- Cycles go unpaid
- Bonds leave, STX sold
Model settings
Questions
Where does the Bitcoin yield come from?
From Bitcoin that Stacks miners commit to win STX block rewards, not from lending or new issuance. Miners rationally commit up to what they expect the STX reward to be worth, so the pool that pays the bonds rises and falls with the STX price.
What happens if STX falls 70%?
On the report's bear path, a 70% one-off fall in cycle 30 drains the reserve from about 31 BTC to about 6 BTC, roughly 0.4 years of bond obligations, while miners still fund about nine cycles in ten on schedule. A second shock after that would find little left to absorb it.
Why does the bull case pay less yield than the bear case?
Because more Bitcoin competes for the same miner-funded pool. The report's bull case supports more enrolled BTC at 1.60% than the bear case does at 3.41%. The 3% target is a clearing reference, not a promise.
Why is a flash crash worse than a slow decline of the same size?
Capacity and the clearing yield are set once per six-month bonding period. A slow decline gives the controls time to shrink new capacity; a sudden one lands on obligations that were sized before it, so the reserve carries the gap until the book renews.
Is this the model from the report?
No. It is a simplified model calibrated to the report's published scenario outputs. The analysts' full model, with miner bidding behaviour and the breakpoint analysis, stays private and is described in the report.
Sources
Overview shown