Stacks Bitcoin Staking model
Run the PoX-5 Bitcoin Staking design, live since July 2026, eight years forward under your own Bitcoin and STX paths, capacity, coverage and target yield, and see whether miners keep funding the bonds and how much reserve is left after a shock.
What it models
Stacks miners commit Bitcoin to compete for STX block rewards, and most of that Bitcoin is paid out to participants who lock STX.
The PoX-5 upgrade, live since 29 July 2026 with the first bond on 10 September 2026, lets Bitcoin holders join by pairing their BTC with a small STX bond. Those bonds are paid first from the miner-funded pool, the leftover is split between STX stackers and a reserve, and capacity is set once per six-month period against a coverage target.
Because miners pay with the value of the STX they expect to receive, a falling STX price shrinks the pool while the bonds already sold still have to be paid. That is the loop this model runs.
Fixed inputs
- 210 two-week cycles, about eight years
- Target yield 3% a year, clearing yield between 1.2% and 6%
- Bonds run six months; a thirteenth of the book renews each cycle
- Leftover rewards split 85% to STX stackers, 15% to the reserve
- Miners re-price with a lag and leave faster than STX falls
- A simplified model calibrated to the report's published scenarios. The analysts' full model stays private.
Run the model
Pick a preset or set your own path. Every change re-runs the model on the spot; the address bar follows, so the link you copy reproduces the run.
The simulator starts from today's figures; changes are measured against the report, 10 July 2026. The outcomes table further down keeps the report's starting point.
- Bitcoin
- $81,511
- +29% vs $63,193
- STX
- $0.423
- +150% vs $0.169
- STX in sats
- 519 sats
- +94% vs 267 sats
- What miners get paid in. The pool follows this.
- PoX cycle
- #145
- Two weeks each; 13 make a bonding period.
- STX stacked
- 493.4M STX
- −15% vs 581M at the report
- worth $208,822,870 at today's price
- Miner payouts
- 10.6 BTC a cycle
- +147% vs 4.3 at the report
- From the last 250 Bitcoin blocks of PoX rewards, scaled to a cycle.
- Bitcoin bonds
- 735 BTC in 2 bonds
- 0.85 BTC due to them every cycle. Read from the PoX-5 contract.
Every cycle is paid from miner revenue. The reserve grows to 272.2 BTC and bonds earn 1.32% a year.
- STX falls
- Miners bid less
- Reward pool shrinks
- Bond payments stay
- Reserve drains
- Cycles go unpaid
- Bonds leave, STX sold
Scenario outcomes
Every preset, as plain text.
| Scenario | Realized BTC yield | Reserve after 8 years | Cycles paid by miners | Survives a flash crash of | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.81% | 30.3 BTC | 100% | STX −49% | Funded |
| Base | 2.34% | 68.5 BTC | 100% | STX −49% | Funded |
| Bull | 1.64% | 159.9 BTC | 100% | STX −51% | Funded |
| Stress | 2.86% | 8.2 BTC | 91% | — | Breaks |
| Flash crash | 1.67% | 12.1 BTC | 90% | — | Breaks |
Has it been right?
3 months since the report. The checks below settle with the live figures; the calls are marked by the analysts at every re-run.
- Miner pool follows STX in satsOn track
- Model said
- With STX +94% in sats since the report, the model expects miners to pay out 2.9× what they did then.
- Reality
- Miners now pay out 10.6 BTC a cycle against about 4.3 at the report: 2.5×.
The report's pool is derived from its stacking snapshot: 581M STX earning 7.17% at the prices of the day.
- Which price path reality is onAbove the bull path
- Model said
- The bull path would have Bitcoin at +1% and STX at +4% after 3 months.
- Reality
- Bitcoin is +29% and STX +150% since the report.
Stronger prices mean a bigger pool and more capacity; the model's bull case pays the lowest yield for that reason.
| The call | Due | Status | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|
| PoX-5 activates with the reserve in accrual-only mode, so a shortfall in the bootstrap period cannot be covered without a hard fork.SIP-045 section 3.3: the reserve accrues 15% of each cycle's excess, no contract function can spend it, and a draw needs a new SIP. | At PoX-5 activation, 29 July 2026 | Right | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Every cycle is funded from miner revenue on the bear, base and bull paths, with a reserve of 30 to 160 BTC after eight years.The first bond went live on 10 September 2026; checked against on-chain bond payments each period. | Each bonding period after launch | Not due yet | — |
| A one-off STX fall of about 60% is survived on every path; around 75% breaks the bear path.The model's breakpoint, not a forecast of the price. | If and when such a fall happens | Not due yet | — |
Questions people ask
Where does the Bitcoin yield come from?
From Bitcoin that Stacks miners commit to win STX block rewards, not from lending or new issuance. Miners rationally commit up to what they expect the STX reward to be worth, so the pool that pays the bonds rises and falls with the STX price.
What happens if STX falls 70%?
On the report's bear path, a 70% one-off fall in cycle 30 drains the reserve from about 31 BTC to about 6 BTC, roughly 0.4 years of bond obligations, while miners still fund about nine cycles in ten on schedule. A second shock after that would find little left to absorb it.
Why does the bull case pay less yield than the bear case?
Because more Bitcoin competes for the same miner-funded pool. The report's bull case supports more enrolled BTC at 1.60% than the bear case does at 3.41%. The 3% target is a clearing reference, not a promise.
Why is a flash crash worse than a slow decline of the same size?
Capacity and the clearing yield are set once per six-month bonding period. A slow decline gives the controls time to shrink new capacity; a sudden one lands on obligations that were sized before it, so the reserve carries the gap until the book renews.
Is this the model from the report?
No. It is a simplified model calibrated to the report's published scenario outputs. The analysts' full model, with miner bidding behaviour and the breakpoint analysis, stays private and is described in the report.
Prices refresh every 15 minutes when a source answers; holdings and obligations are the report’s figures. Research, not investment advice. Back to the report.
